Introduction Section I
Uncertain
Numbers:
Random
Variables
Section II
Combining
Uncertain
Numbers:
Diversification
Section III
Plans Based on
Uncertain Inputs:
Functions of
Random Variables
Section IV
Uncertain Numbers
that Depend on
Other Uncertain
Numbers: Statistical
Dependence
Command
Reference
References Acknowledge-
ments

V. References

  1. Efron, Bradley and Tibshirani, Robert J. An Introduction to the Bootstrap, Chapman & Hall, New York, 1993.

  2. Markowitz, H. M. (1959) Portfolio Selection, Efficient Diversification of Investments, 1991 Edition, Blackwell, Cambridge MA.

  3. Savage, Sam L. Statistical Analysis for the Masses in Statistics and Public Policy, edited by Bruce Spencer, Oxford University Press, 1996. See http://www.stanford.edu/~savage/stat.pdf for a pre-publication draft.

  4. __, INSIGHT.xla Business Analysis Software for Microsoft Excel, - Text and Software, Duxbury Press, Belmont CA 1998.

  5. __, The Flaw of Averages, San Jose Mercury News, Soapbox Column, October 8, 2000.

  6. __, Blitzograms – Interactive Histograms, Informs Transactions on Education, Vol. 1, Number 2, Fall 2000.

  7. Simon, Julian L., Resampling: The New Statistics. Resampling Stats, Inc. 1974-1995.

  8. Simulation Software from other vendors: @RISK and Crystal Ball are two powerful Monte Carlo packages that should be considered if you outgrow XLSim. For a comparison see XLSimReference.xls

If you like XLSim, you should consider INSIGHT.xla

INSIGHT.xla

"a must read"
   Harry Markowitz
   Nobel Laureate in Economics

294 Page Book and Software by

Dr. Sam L. Savage

Containing intuitive spreadsheet models covering

Monte Carlo Simulation

  • Two full chapters on Monte Carlo
  • Numerous models that may be run with XLSim

Discrete Event Simulation

  • Simple queues
  • Queuing networks

Decision Trees

  • Arbitrary utility functions (not just additive)
  • State variables for automatic calculation of leaves

Markov Chains

  • Scaleable template based on MMULT

Time Series Analysis

  • One and two parameter exponential smoothing
  • 12 month seasonality
  • Extensive data set

Optimization

  • Includes small copy of WhatsBest!Æ
  • Models in both Solver and WhatsBest! Format
  • Numerous examples including stochastic optimization

Order at www.AnalyCorp.com

Business and Academia applaud INSIGHT.xla

INSIGHT.xla hits you right where you learn.

William Perry

Former Secretary of Defense of the United States

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Rarely has such sound theory been provided in such an entertaining manner. INSIGHT is a must read for those who analyze business problems, are comfortable with Excel, and are not otherwise supplied with all the statistical, simulation and optimization tools needed for analysis.

Harry Markowitz

Nobel Laureate in Economics

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A savage onslaught against the algebraic curtain.

Bill Machrone, PC Week

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Sam Savage is the perfect Zen master of spreadsheets.

Brad Osgood

Director, Science, Mathematics, Engineering Core, Stanford University

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Business schools teach the theory and the math, but Sam's approach is intuitive and visual. His tools work right in the spreadsheet, so most people can hit the ground running and bosses will have no trouble reading and interpreting the results.

Matthew Raphaelson

Senior Vice President, Wells Fargo & Company

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Sam Savage has given us an enormously practical way to use business analysis tools such as simulation, decision trees, and optimization. These tools are taught in many business schools but the approach is, alas, too often skewed toward the theoretical and many students feel uneasy making the transition to use them in actual business situations.

John P. Gould

Professor & Former Dean, University of Chicago Graduate School of Business

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I must say that the information was just as compelling as a good novel... I am totally pleased.

Kirk Johnson - Kraft Foods

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Sophisticated concepts developed over several decades have been faithfully and beautifully captured in spreadsheet form--making these concepts both understandable and usable by a wide audience. And this material is not just for the novice. Professionals will find useful programs that can be used immediately to solve important and realistic problems. INSIGHT.xla will play a major role in promoting sound, modern approaches to important problems.

David G. Luenberger - Professor, Stanford University and Author of Investment Science

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May I say that I am absolutely elated with your work. For the first time I have been given an extremely usable way to employ business analysis tools that validate the often complex intuitive aspects  in my actual daily business decisions.

Dr. Udo Henseler, Vice President and CFO, Qualicon Inc., A DuPont Company

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Not until I got my copy of Insight had I been able to make any progress with using statistics to analyze stock market data.

Ron McEwan - Independent Trader

Introduction Section I
Uncertain
Numbers:
Random
Variables
Section II
Combining
Uncertain
Numbers:
Diversification
Section III
Plans Based on
Uncertain Inputs:
Functions of
Random Variables
Section IV
Uncertain Numbers
that Depend on
Other Uncertain
Numbers: Statistical
Dependence
Command
Reference
References Acknowledge-
ments